Modeling Mpox Transmission Dynamics: A Seven-Compartment Approach Integrating Imperfect Vaccination and Immunity States

Abstract

The study of infectious diseases like Monkeypox (MPOX) is crucial for understanding transmission patterns and shaping public health strategies. This study presents a compartmental model for describing MPOX transmission dynamics, integrating stochastic components to reflect the random nature of disease spread. The model divides the population into seven groups: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I), partially vaccinated (P_v), fully vaccinated (F_v), partially recovered (R₁), and fully recovered (R₂). By fitting the model to actual MPOX case data, we estimate key parameters and align the model with observed epidemic trends. Additionally, we obtained the reproduction number using the next-generation matrix, the stability analysis was carried out, the disease equilibrium was also estimated and the sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine how changes in infection and recovery rates influence transmission. The findings highlight the combined effects of various epidemiological factors on MPOX transmission, emphasizing the importance of vaccination and recovery rates in managing the outbreak. This model serves as a practical tool for predicting the course of outbreaks and supporting public health interventions.